Analyzing Last Week’s Data: A Look at 10-Year Yield, Mortgage Rates, and More
As we enter the midway point of the year, the labor market continues to be a key player in shaping the economy. Last week’s jobs data had a significant impact on the 10-year yield and mortgage rates, with yields shooting up after a strong labor report exceeded expectations.
In a recent analysis of Jobs Week, it was noted that while the labor market is softening, it has not yet broken. The relationship between the labor market and mortgage rates will be further explored in an upcoming HousingWire Daily podcast, providing a deeper understanding of market dynamics.
The spread between the 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year yield has been a concern since 2022, but there is some positive news for 2024 as spreads are better than last year. However, if spreads return to a normal range, mortgage rates could see a significant decrease.
Purchase application data has been fluctuating, with demand impacted by rising mortgage rates. Weekly inventory data shows growth, providing some relief from record lows in inventory levels. New listings data also shows year-over-year growth, indicating a positive trend in the housing market.
Price-cut percentages have been increasing since the end of March, leading to a cooling in home prices. Pending sales data suggests future sales may see slight growth, aligning with the increase in new listings.
Looking ahead, the focus shifts to inflation and Fed meetings, with CPI inflation and bond auctions on the agenda for the coming week. The volatility in mortgage rates is expected to continue, making it a busy and crucial time for the market.
Stay tuned for more updates and insights on the evolving economic landscape as we navigate through the rest of the year.
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